The Chronic Poor, the Transient Poor, and the Vulnerable in Indonesia Before and After the Crisis

Asep Suryahadi • Asep Suryahadi • Sudarno Sumarto • Sudarno Sumarto
Working paper SMERU Research Institute • Mei 2001 Indonesia


Using cross-section data from household surveys, we estimate several categories of household poverty and vulnerability in Indonesia by combining the available information on current consumption levels, estimates of vulnerability to poverty, and estimates of expected consumption levels. the results indicate that the level of vulnerability to poverty among Indonesian households after the crisis unambiguously increased from pre-crisis levels. furthermore, not only did the poverty rate in Indonesia increase significantly because of the crisis, but also much of this increase was due to an increase in chronic poverty. likewise, the number of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has almost tripled. as a result, the total number of households in the vulnerable category has jumped from 18 percent of the population in 1996 to more than one third of the population in 1999. *we thank shubham chauduri and john maxwell for valuable comments and suggestions and daniel perwira and wenefrida widyanti for excellent research assistance. we are grateful to statistics Indonesia (bps) for providing access to the data.


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