A COHORT STUDY ON THE PRIMARY PREVENTION OF STROKE INCIDENCE IN ADULT POPULATION IN BOGOR, WEST JAVA
November 19, 2020  //  DOI: 10.26911/the7thicph-FP.01.07
Woro Riyadina, Julianty Pradono, Ekowati Rahajeng, Dewi Kristanti, Yuda Turana

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Background: Incidence of stroke showed an increasing trend in Indonesia, 12 new cases per 1,000 in
2013, and 19 new cases per 1,000 in 2018 despite the stroke control programs from the government.
This study aimed to estimate Cumulative Incidence, Incidence Rate, and Population Attributable
Fraction (PAF). This study also estimated the effect of blood pressure, physical activity, blood sugar
levels, and smoking habits on the risk of stroke in adults.
Subjects and Method: This was a cohort study conducted for 6 years in 5 Districts, Bogor City, West
Java. An adult population of 5,189 subjects with aged ≥25 years was selected. The dependent variable
was stroke. The independent variables included blood pressure, physical activity, blood sugar level, and
smoking habits. Data for independent variables (except blood sugar level) were collected by using
questioners. Data were analyzed by Cox Proportional Hazard Model.
Results: The Cumulative Incidence was 2.09% and Incidence Rate was 480 new stroke cases per
100,000 person-year (CI 95%= 130 to 670) over 6 years. Predictors of stroke incidence were
hypertension (HR= 2.50; CI 95%= 1.50 to 4.10; p= 0.001), low physical activity (HR= 2.40; CI 95%=
1.50 to 3.90; p< 0.001), high blood sugar level (HR= 3; CI 95%= 1.70 to 5.50; p= 0.001), and heavy
smoking (HR= 3.90; CI 95%= 1.40 to 11.10; p= 0.007). PAF of blood sugar level and physical activity
was 67.75%, and able to reduce stroke incidence by 1,990 from 2,937.
Conclusion: Hypertension, low physical activity, high blood sugar level, and heavy smoking are
predictors of stroke in adult. Primary prevention by increasing physical activity and decreasing blood
sugar level can reduce incidence of stroke.

Keywords: stroke, Cumulative Incidence, Incidence Rate, PAF, primary prevention

Correspondence:
Woro Riyadina. National Institute of Health Research and Development, Ministry of Health,
Indonesia. Email: w.riyadina02@gmail.com. Mobile: +6281297673074.

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