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Practical Methods to Forecast the Actual Completion Date of the Project

Ali Fazeli Moslehabadi
Diterbitkan 2020

Abstrak

One of the most important issues for stakeholders, managers, and the entire body of the project is to know the actual completion date of the project. Lack of knowledge of this subject and lack of familiarity with the techniques of estimating the actual completion date of the project, additional to the mistaken decisions made by the project managers and stakeholders, will result in financial and credibility losses for the project implementers. The methods used to predict the end time of the project are divided into methods based on the logic of the schedule (Critical Path Method) and methods based on the Earned Value Method. The first-class methods, due to the assumptions of linear programming and network logic, and the limitations of the project planning and software control, and the second category (Earned Value Method), due to the dependence of this method on the costs estimation requirement of the activities, are not generally well-suited to predict the completion date of the project. The methods used to estimate the completion time of a project, after starting the project, lose their efficiency and effectiveness by breaking the assumptions that are based on them. Current paper presents some of the most practical techniques for predicting the actual completion date used in construction projects, reviewing the conditions of use, and the strengths and weaknesses of each of the techniques.

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