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description Journal article public Pakistan Journal of Surgery and Medicine

Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: MELD Score 30-day Mortality Predictability and Etiology in a Pakistani Population

Azza Sarfraz, Muzna Sarfraz, Naeem Abbas Gilani, Javaria Siddiq, Saim Sattar, 1 more
Published 2020

Abstract

Background: Cirrhosis is a pathological condition that ultimately leads to liver failure. Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) has a high short term mortality rate. Viral hepatitis is the most common cause of liver failure in our local population. We carried out this study to identity the 30-day mortality and etiology of patients presenting with ACLF using Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predictability. Methodology: This was a descriptive case series, conducted at Sheikh Zayed Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan from January 31, 2018 to July 30, 2018. One hundred and eighty five patients who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled using 95% confidence level and 4% margin of error. Data was entered and analyzed with SPSS version 23.0. Numerical variables including age was presented by Mean ± S.D. Categorical variables i.e. gender, etiology of acute-on-chronic liver failure and 30-day mortality were presented by frequency and percentage. Data was stratified for age, gender, duration of chronic liver disease and MELD grade to address the effect modifiers. Post-stratification chi-square test was calculated using 95% significance (p≤0.05). Results: Majority of the enrolled patients were male (74.6%) while only 25.4% of the patients were female. One hundred and thirty patients (70.3%) had underlying viral hepatitis while twelve patients (6.5%) and forty three patients (23.2%) presented with alcoholic liver disease and drug-induced ACLF, respectively. Eighty patients (43.2%) died within 30 days of admission.The 30-day mortality with respect to MELD grade was statistically significant (p<0.001) with the highest mortality noted in grade-IV and thirty five patients (43.8%) dying within 30 days of admission (p<0.001). Grade-II and III MELD scores also contributed to the 30-day mortality with twenty three patients (28.8%) and nineteen patients (23.8%) dying within 30 days of admission (p<0.001). Conclusion: MELD scores are able to accurately predict the short-term mortality in patients with ACLF and viral hepatitis was the most common etiology in our population. Early detection and use of appropriate prognostic models may alleviate mortality and morbidity in paitents with ACLF.

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